Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4648 at 20:06, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4648 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MCI 20:06	RDU 23:30	18%	10%	2.2%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052	4h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:29 → RDU 13:59DL 2026	5h 59m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521	6h 28m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	52m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	4h 32m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → RDU 15:45DL 1550	6h 45m	99%	83%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 53m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	8h 16m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:23 → ATL 19:38DL 1443	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:42 +1DL 2938	7h 19m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	6h 15m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 16:28 → PHL 20:20AA 1268	46m Philadelphia	PHL 21:06 → RDU 22:50AA 873	5h 22m	59%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON