tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2657 Southwest MCI 10:14 SAN 11:38 18% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 01m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 12:04 → SAN 13:08DL 1296 8h 03m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → SAN 12:57DL 540 9h 18m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 3h 09m Detroit DTW 12:32 → SAN 14:12DL 761 9h 47m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903 3h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 7h 50m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → SAN 13:17DL 843 8h 17m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCI 09:01 → DEN 10:18UA 1384 1h 36m Denver DEN 11:54 → SAN 13:23UA 1940 6h 22m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCI 10:22 → ATL 13:36DL 2471 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SAN 17:13DL 924 8h 51m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 13:03 → ORD 14:55UA 5309 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Chicago ORD 16:06 → SAN 18:23UA 2138 7h 20m 73% 49%
AlaskaDetails → MCI 15:19 → SEA 17:02AS 418 46m Seattle SEA 17:48 → SAN 20:19AS 791 7h 00m 58% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON