Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1548 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4025 MCO 17:24 → ATL 19:25 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:03	5%	2%	0.8%	95%
DL 1494 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:15	ATL 07:58	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:46	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 191 Southwest	MCO 08:59	ATL 10:43	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:41	10%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:42	13%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	14%	4%	0.9%	81%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	17%	5%	0.9%	82%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ATL 22:54	17%	7%	0.9%	72%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	19%	8%	0.9%	67%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:47	21%	9%	0.9%	60%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	21%	7%	1.0%	75%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	24%	9%	1.0%	55%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:36	ATL 17:11	25%	9%	1.0%	72%
F9 9406 Frontier	MCO 06:34	ATL 08:17	26%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 1563 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:37	ATL 08:27	26%	5%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:35	ATL 18:10	27%	10%	0.9%	67%
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:17	ATL 11:07	29%	9%	1.0%	67%
WN 2670 Southwest	MCO 20:00	ATL 21:44	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 232 Southwest	MCO 15:37	ATL 17:21	30%	11%	1.2%	no record
F9 3507 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 12:52	ATL 14:39	41%	14%	1.5%	70%worse than usual
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	45%	19%	1.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON