Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: F9 1915 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day F9 1915 MCO 06:27 → CLE 09:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 2251 MCO 21:54 → CLE 00:36 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:27	CLE 09:05	10%	3%	0.9%	87%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 12:25	CLE 15:00	11%	5%	0.9%	92%
WN 769 Southwest	MCO 11:34	CLE 14:02	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
F9 2667 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:03	CLE 12:40	19%	5%	1.1%	82%
UA 583 United	MCO 20:38	CLE 23:21	24%	10%	2.1%	no record
F9 2251 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:54	CLE 00:36	33%	12%	1.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON