Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 393 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 393 MCO 06:14 → DEN 08:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3311 MCO 17:29 → DEN 19:33 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 393 United	MCO 06:14	DEN 08:19	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2307 United	MCO 07:59	DEN 09:57	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2712 Southwest	MCO 08:16	DEN 10:11	13%	2%	0.9%	no record
F9 1733 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:35	DEN 07:33	13%	3%	1.0%	91%
UA 1022 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	DEN 12:00	14%	5%	0.8%	90%
WN 2835 Southwest	MCO 10:19	DEN 12:08	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1520 United Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DEN 14:51	18%	6%	0.9%	93%worse than usual
UA 667 United	MCO 15:30	DEN 17:55	26%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 2716 Southwest	MCO 19:44	DEN 21:37	30%	10%	1.3%	no record
UA 1770 United Flight history →	MCO 17:17	DEN 19:45	31%	11%	0.9%	69%
F9 4919 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:25	DEN 15:21	32%	10%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
WN 2714 Southwest	MCO 14:31	DEN 16:22	34%	8%	1.4%	no record
WN 2715 Southwest	MCO 16:59	DEN 18:51	39%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 3311 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:29	DEN 19:33	43%	13%	1.3%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON