Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, F9 1369 at 17:01, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 1369 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:01	GRR 20:02	26%	11%	2.0%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	6h 13m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 13:01 → GRR 14:02DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	5h 00m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → GRR 15:14DL 1245	8h 14m	100%	79%
American Details →	MCO 05:59 → CLT 07:46AA 2127	3h 11m Charlotte	CLT 10:57 → GRR 12:53AA 1384	6h 54m	99%	78%
United Details →	MCO 07:25 → EWR 10:04UA 1105	3h 48m Newark	EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic	8h 38m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	7h 46m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	MCO 16:35 → ATL 18:10DL 1372	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:33 → GRR 23:32DL 2865	6h 57m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	7h 09m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON