Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2999 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2999 MCO 06:30 → HOU 07:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1503 MCO 20:38 → HOU 21:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2999 Southwest	MCO 06:30	HOU 07:58	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2118 Southwest	MCO 08:50	HOU 10:18	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2721 Southwest	MCO 12:44	HOU 14:12	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 2724 Southwest	MCO 22:40	HOU 00:06	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2754 Southwest	MCO 16:53	HOU 18:21	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 2722 Southwest	MCO 18:44	HOU 20:12	29%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 1503 Southwest	MCO 20:38	HOU 21:55	31%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON