Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1573 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–59%.

Safest bet that day DL 1573 MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 1098 MCO 17:15 → LGA 20:03 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	11%	3%	1.9%	91%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	25%	9%	2.9%	84%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	38%	25%	4.9%	72%
AA 1563 American	MCO 11:40	LGA 14:19	38%	18%	3.2%	no record
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:54	LGA 16:26	40%	21%	3.6%	76%worse than usual
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:00	LGA 22:32	45%	26%	6.0%	no record
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:23	LGA 14:59	49%	23%	3.0%	78%worse than usual
AA 2224 American	MCO 18:18	LGA 21:13	53%	31%	5.9%	no record
B6 798 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LGA 21:59	57%	35%	6.0%	45%
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:36	LGA 17:14	58%	34%	4.9%	73%worse than usual
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	59%	35%	5.5%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON