Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2760 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2760 MCO 07:10 → MSY 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 360 MCO 17:29 → MSY 18:22 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2760 Southwest	MCO 07:10	MSY 08:10	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2761 Southwest	MCO 09:41	MSY 10:16	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2762 Southwest	MCO 11:59	MSY 12:52	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 2765 Southwest	MCO 22:39	MSY 23:39	19%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3034 Southwest	MCO 15:34	MSY 16:24	25%	9%	1.3%	no record
MX 411 Breeze	MCO 18:07	MSY 19:08	25%	8%	2.5%	no record
F9 1431 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:05	MSY 19:12	26%	14%	2.1%	82%
WN 5035 Southwest	MCO 18:29	MSY 19:22	27%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 360 Southwest	MCO 17:29	MSY 18:22	27%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON