Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MX 1556 Breeze	MCO 12:06	PNS 12:47	16%	5%	1.7%	no record
F9 4661 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 12:35	PNS 13:12	21%	10%	1.3%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → PNS 12:52DL 1640	6h 47m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103	3h 47m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 36m	99%	85%
American Details →	MCO 05:57 → DFW 07:55AA 2677	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:05 → PNS 11:00AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	6h 03m	95%	82%
American Details →	MCO 08:52 → MIA 10:05AA 1693	3h 41m Miami	MIA 13:46 → PNS 14:42AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	100%	81%
American Details →	MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 09:17 → PNS 10:06AA 2476	6h 06m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	6h 08m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:36 → ATL 17:11DL 1576	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:10 → PNS 21:32DL 3086	6h 56m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	53m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	3h 58m	75%	56%
American Details →	MCO 16:01 → CLT 17:47AA 2117	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 18:53 → PNS 19:44AA 5429 · flown by PSA	4h 43m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON