Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1337 at 08:43 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1337 MCO 08:43 → RDU 10:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1786 MCO 14:57 → RDU 17:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:43	RDU 10:26	8%	2%	1.1%	88%
WN 2816 Southwest	MCO 08:59	RDU 10:54	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
MX 1303 Breeze	MCO 07:15	RDU 09:05	13%	3%	1.3%	no record
F9 1112 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:29	RDU 09:31	15%	6%	1.0%	80%
DL 1312 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:10	RDU 16:07	16%	5%	1.8%	77%
DL 1370 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:00	RDU 21:55	18%	6%	1.4%	70%
WN 2789 Southwest	MCO 21:39	RDU 23:33	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
MX 1611 Breeze	MCO 13:21	RDU 15:16	25%	7%	2.6%	no record
MX 2071 Breeze	MCO 16:28	RDU 18:24	27%	8%	3.0%	no record
WN 2788 Southwest	MCO 15:49	RDU 17:43	27%	8%	1.9%	no record
F9 1786 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:57	RDU 17:00	31%	14%	1.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON