Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2801 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2801 MCO 06:25 → SJU 09:23 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1824 MCO 14:36 → SJU 17:41 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2801 Southwest	MCO 06:25	SJU 09:23	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2802 Southwest	MCO 09:09	SJU 12:12	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:31	SJU 09:41	13%	5%	1.2%	68%
B6 1033 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:10	SJU 10:15	13%	4%	0.9%	74%
WN 2807 Southwest	MCO 22:31	SJU 01:42	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4903 Southwest	MCO 12:26	SJU 15:29	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
WN 210 Southwest	MCO 21:24	SJU 00:25	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:43	SJU 13:49	21%	8%	1.2%	86%
WN 3431 Southwest	MCO 19:05	SJU 22:06	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 4726 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	SJU 02:15	22%	10%	1.5%	77%
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:32	SJU 15:40	24%	11%	1.2%	72%
F9 2250 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:14	SJU 14:26	25%	9%	1.6%	87%worse than usual
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:06	SJU 22:16	26%	11%	1.2%	69%
WN 3378 Southwest	MCO 14:12	SJU 17:06	26%	6%	1.2%	no record
F9 2868 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:10	SJU 23:22	28%	10%	1.5%	64%
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:55	SJU 19:03	31%	12%	1.5%	75%
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:36	SJU 17:41	33%	12%	1.9%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON