tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2809 Southwest MCO 10:39 SRQ 11:35 18% 4% 2.0% no record
WN 856 Southwest MCO 21:55 SRQ 22:51 24% 9% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 08:49 → SRQ 10:26DL 3196 4h 56m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104 6h 10m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 7h 00m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:39 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 6h 17m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057 7h 26m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:49 → BWI 11:15WN 2693 2h 49m Baltimore BWI 14:04 → SRQ 16:45WN 1167 7h 56m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 7h 12m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:59 → CLT 07:46AA 2127 3h 36m Charlotte CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:25AA 3328 7h 26m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:01 → CLT 17:47AA 2117 1h 31m Charlotte CLT 19:18 → SRQ 21:14AA 5348 · flown by PSA 5h 13m 73% 57%
UnitedDetails → MCO 16:04 → EWR 18:57UA 2629 1h 12m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 7h 11m 65% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON