Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4810 at 10:59, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4810 Southwest	MCO 10:59	STT 14:08	19%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896	2h 19m Charlotte	CLT 09:04 → STT 12:59AA 2684	7h 59m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → STT 13:45DL 1899	8h 15m	98%	80%
American Details →	MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12AA 2894	2h 46m Miami	MIA 09:58 → STT 12:52AA 943	6h 51m	99%	79%
American Details →	MCO 08:52 → MIA 10:05AA 1693	2h 50m Miami	MIA 12:55 → STT 15:43AA 1391	6h 51m	100%	71%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 07:10 → SJU 10:15B6 1033	3h 01m San Juan	SJU 13:16 → STT 14:08B6 936	6h 58m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON