tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 3025 Allegiant MCO 09:00 TYS 10:48 14% 5% 1.1% no record
WN 2819 Southwest MCO 11:25 TYS 13:09 15% 3% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 08:40 → TYS 09:42DL 1817 4h 12m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 4h 55m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:59 → CLT 07:46AA 2127 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 11:10 → TYS 12:17AA 6095 · flown by Piedmont 6h 18m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:39 → TYS 15:40DL 1148 6h 35m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 19:33 → TYS 20:36DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor 6h 31m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:36 → ATL 17:11DL 1576 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 21:03 → TYS 22:06DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor 6h 30m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:55 → DFW 08:44AA 599 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:03 → TYS 14:22AA 2544 7h 27m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 6h 07m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:39 → MIA 19:57AA 1642 1h 04m Miami MIA 21:01 → TYS 23:15AA 2025 4h 36m 64% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON