Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2448 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2448 MDT 05:58 → ORD 07:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3463 MDT 14:08 → ORD 15:15 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2448 American	MDT 05:58	ORD 07:09	13%	6%	2.7%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	14%	5%	1.8%	85%
OO 6054 SkyWest	MDT 10:38	ORD 11:45	29%	12%	2.7%	no record
YX 4799 Republic	MDT 20:08	ORD 21:20	29%	11%	1.9%	no record
AA 1672 American	MDT 12:07	ORD 13:17	31%	15%	3.3%	no record
YX 4802 Republic	MDT 15:09	ORD 16:21	34%	14%	2.6%	no record
UA 2134 United	MDT 17:50	ORD 19:01	39%	17%	2.5%	no record
YX 3463 Republic	MDT 14:08	ORD 15:15	41%	15%	3.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON