Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 351 at 07:49 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 351 MDW 07:49 → BDL 10:58 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4290 MDW 18:44 → BDL 21:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 351 Southwest	MDW 07:49	BDL 10:58	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1011 Southwest	MDW 12:41	BDL 15:43	21%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 4290 Southwest	MDW 18:44	BDL 21:53	30%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON