Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4652 at 12:49, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4652 Southwest	MDW 12:49	CHS 15:55	23%	5%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:51 → CHS 13:03DL 2179	6h 03m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → CHS 23:54DL 2850	5h 44m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 19:03 → CHS 20:17DL 2493	6h 36m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:41 → ATL 13:47DL 1063	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:26 → CHS 17:39DL 3179	5h 58m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:20 → MSP 11:51DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → CHS 16:25DL 2463	5h 05m	84%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON