Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4497 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4497 Southwest	MDW 07:57	CLT 10:57	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 4904 Southwest	MDW 18:54	CLT 21:43	28%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 26m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 48m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:20 → MSP 11:51DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	7h 29m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:58 → CLT 20:09DL 2132	6h 28m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:41 → ATL 13:47DL 1063	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	6h 38m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	MDW 12:46 → DFW 15:22F9 2999	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:22 → CLT 19:58F9 3890	6h 12m	64%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON