Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 649 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 649 Southwest	MDW 09:50	DSM 11:09	18%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 4569 Southwest	MDW 21:49	DSM 23:09	31%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 34m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:41 → ATL 13:47DL 1063	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	7h 11m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:20 → MSP 11:51DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 13:24 → DSM 14:27DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	4h 07m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:19 → DTW 15:27DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 16:40 → DSM 17:33DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor	4h 14m	83%	63%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	5h 19m	80%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON