Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2172 at 07:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2172 MDW 07:54 → DTW 10:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2746 MDW 19:34 → DTW 21:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2172 Southwest	MDW 07:54	DTW 10:04	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
9E 5305 Endeavor	MDW 09:22	DTW 11:34	12%	4%	1.5%	no record
DL 4688 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MDW 13:19	DTW 15:27	18%	5%	2.7%	81%
DL 4690 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MDW 19:01	DTW 21:13	23%	10%	2.8%	57%
WN 1295 Southwest	MDW 14:44	DTW 16:57	25%	7%	1.7%	no record
WN 2746 Southwest	MDW 19:34	DTW 21:44	29%	11%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON