Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2152 Southwest	MDW 10:34	ICT 12:31	19%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 4277 Southwest	MDW 21:59	ICT 23:54	27%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → ICT 12:23DL 828	6h 23m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:20 → MSP 11:51DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 13:30 → ICT 15:10DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	4h 50m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:41 → ATL 13:47DL 1063	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → ICT 18:38DL 2128	7h 57m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	56m Atlanta	ATL 21:18 → ICT 22:40DL 2959	5h 30m	81%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON