Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4412 at 09:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4412 MDW 09:41 → OMA 11:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2946 MDW 21:59 → OMA 23:33 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4412 Southwest	MDW 09:41	OMA 11:15	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 4613 Southwest	MDW 15:14	OMA 16:49	23%	6%	1.7%	no record
WN 2945 Southwest	MDW 15:49	OMA 17:24	24%	7%	1.7%	no record
WN 2946 Southwest	MDW 21:59	OMA 23:33	27%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON