Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → PNS 12:52DL 1640	6h 52m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → PNS 19:15DL 3021	6h 34m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:41 → ATL 13:47DL 1063	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	4h 32m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	48m Atlanta	ATL 21:10 → PNS 21:32DL 3086	4h 22m	78%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON