Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 647 at 22:04, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 647 Southwest	MDW 22:04	SEA 00:24	36%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629	9h 26m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:20 → MSP 11:51DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → SEA 16:33DL 877	8h 13m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:41 → ATL 13:47DL 1063	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 24m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 18:54 → SEA 21:03DL 714	10h 22m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	MDW 14:23 → MSP 15:55DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	8h 25m	93%	66%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	8h 49m	85%	63%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:19 → DTW 15:27DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	7h 23m	84%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON