Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2995 Southwest	MDW 08:09	SRQ 11:55	14%	4%	2.4%	no record
WN 2996 Southwest	MDW 18:39	SRQ 22:25	22%	8%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 35m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104	5h 25m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:41 → ATL 13:47DL 1063	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	5h 36m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON