Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 5604 at 06:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5604 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	BOS 10:01	8%	3%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:58 → ATL 08:27DL 1666	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	5h 47m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	6h 51m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:20 → ATL 09:43DL 1624	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 27m	95%	81%
American Details →	MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 10:46 → BOS 12:51AA 1809	6h 51m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → DTW 08:52DL 2370	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 00m	95%	79%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	1h 50m Newark	EWR 11:33 → BOS 13:00UA 1669	6h 00m	97%	77%
American Details →	MEM 05:41 → DFW 07:20AA 1940	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → BOS 13:37AA 1206	6h 56m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	MEM 17:05 → ATL 19:33DL 1700	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 15m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	5h 39m	59%	39%
American Details →	MEM 14:44 → DFW 16:24AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:21 → BOS 22:18AA 3036	6h 34m	74%	38%
American Details →	MEM 14:21 → LGA 18:19AA 4807 · flown by Republic	1h 07m New York	LGA 19:26 → BOS 20:34AA 2559	5h 13m	66%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON