tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2779 Southwest MEM 10:49 LAS 12:27 18% 3% 0.7% no record
G4 73 Allegiant MEM 21:41 LAS 23:20 26% 10% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 8h 26m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:58 → ATL 08:27DL 1666 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 02m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:20 → ATL 09:43DL 1624 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 8h 58m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:42 → IAH 08:39UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 3h 16m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 31m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → LAS 17:19DL 659 8h 43m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MEM 12:19 → ATL 14:45DL 82 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 7h 33m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → DTW 08:52DL 2370 3h 23m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 9h 28m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MEM 17:05 → ATL 19:33DL 1700 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:35 → LAS 23:56DL 825 8h 51m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 10:46 → CLT 13:37AA 1354 48m Charlotte CLT 14:25 → LAS 16:03AA 750 7h 17m 54% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON