Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via DFW, leaving 19:40, is the safest bet: 41% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2082 Delta Flight history →	MEM 18:19	LAX 20:22	21%	7%	1.9%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 07:20 → ATL 09:43DL 1624	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 52m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	9h 23m	97%	82%
American Details →	MEM 06:20 → PHL 09:53AA 5409 · flown by PSA	2h 57m Philadelphia	PHL 12:50 → LAX 15:37AA 2944	11h 17m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:58 → ATL 08:27DL 1666	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 57m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 12m	96%	79%
American Details →	MEM 07:09 → CLT 10:01AA 1846	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 12:05 → LAX 14:21AA 1988	9h 12m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → DTW 08:52DL 2370	3h 58m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	10h 35m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 10:46 → CLT 13:37AA 1354	56m Charlotte	CLT 14:33 → LAX 16:30AA 1502	7h 44m	73%	53%
American Details →	MEM 19:40 → DFW 21:20AA 3932 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:25 → LAX 23:42AA 2038	6h 02m	72%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON