Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4564 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 4564 MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 4807 MEM 14:21 → LGA 18:19 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4564 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	LGA 09:48	8%	3%	3.0%	87%
DL 5607 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 07:02	LGA 10:51	12%	4%	3.1%	81%
DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MEM 11:19	LGA 14:59	26%	14%	3.9%	75%
YX 5605 Republic	MEM 16:56	LGA 20:45	38%	26%	11.4%	no record
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 14:21	LGA 18:19	39%	27%	13.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON