Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1340 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1340 American Flight history →	MEM 05:34	MIA 09:03	7%	3%	1.4%	93%
MQ 4157 Envoy	MEM 17:42	MIA 21:16	27%	10%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:58 → ATL 08:27DL 1666	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 04m	98%	82%
American Details →	MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978	2h 22m Charlotte	CLT 10:08 → MIA 12:19AA 2594	6h 19m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	50m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → MIA 13:38DL 793	6h 38m	88%	73%
American Details →	MEM 05:41 → DFW 07:20AA 1940	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:07 → MIA 13:07AA 868	6h 26m	95%	71%
American Details →	MEM 06:20 → PHL 09:53AA 5409 · flown by PSA	1h 45m Philadelphia	PHL 11:38 → MIA 14:34AA 1989	7h 14m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:20 → ATL 09:43DL 1624	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	7h 11m	99%	70%
United Details →	MEM 06:42 → IAH 08:39UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	3h 21m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	8h 05m	98%	68%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	1h 48m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	7h 38m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 14:21 → LGA 18:19AA 4807 · flown by Republic	1h 06m New York	LGA 19:25 → MIA 22:24AA 843	7h 03m	66%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON