tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3002 SkyWest MFR 16:34 LAX 18:39 11% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 3126 SkyWest MFR 07:00 LAX 09:07 14% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 12m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 29m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 5h 44m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 2h 18m San Francisco SFO 17:53 → LAX 19:31UA 2282 5h 20m 98% 72%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:50 → SEA 07:19AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 3h 15m Seattle SEA 10:34 → LAX 13:09AS 496 7h 19m 99% 66%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 1h 06m Denver DEN 17:49 → LAX 19:27UA 1753 6h 17m 84% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 3h 54m 59% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON