Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 1272 at 20:44, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1272 American Flight history →	MIA 20:44	BDL 23:55	32%	12%	1.0%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082	6h 45m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 09:06 → ATL 10:31DL 1261	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	7h 10m	98%	79%
American Details →	MIA 07:49 → CLT 09:56AA 361	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 13:22 → BDL 15:35AA 2741	7h 46m	98%	77%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491	1h 20m Washington	DCA 10:01 → BDL 11:32AA 5508 · flown by PSA	5h 32m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735	7h 19m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:49 → ATL 18:54DL 1323	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	7h 05m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → BDL 20:04DL 2504	7h 59m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → BDL 22:08DL 2765	7h 59m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 16:49 → ATL 18:54DL 1323	59m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → BDL 22:08DL 2765	5h 19m	67%	48%
American Details →	MIA 14:01 → DCA 16:43AA 3034	1h 03m Washington	DCA 17:46 → BDL 19:17AA 5377 · flown by PSA	5h 16m	71%	44%
American Details →	MIA 16:27 → CLT 18:33AA 985	49m Charlotte	CLT 19:22 → BDL 21:23AA 3280	4h 56m	58%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON