Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1864 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 1864 MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 322 MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1864 United Flight history →	MIA 07:07	EWR 10:11	9%	3%	1.1%	93%
UA 408 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	EWR 11:54	12%	6%	1.2%	88%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	MIA 08:37	EWR 11:42	13%	6%	1.5%	93%
UA 2433 United Flight history →	MIA 11:21	EWR 14:21	30%	11%	1.2%	94%worse than usual
AA 2008 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	EWR 00:59	38%	16%	3.2%	62%
UA 1102 United	MIA 13:34	EWR 16:45	40%	19%	1.5%	no record
UA 2029 United Flight history →	MIA 19:56	EWR 22:56	46%	21%	1.8%	72%worse than usual
AA 1446 American	MIA 14:24	EWR 17:41	48%	23%	2.7%	no record
AA 322 American Flight history →	MIA 19:48	EWR 22:53	50%	23%	2.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON