Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 3754 at 20:40, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3754 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:40	GSO 22:57	19%	5%	1.0%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:43 → GSO 13:20AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	7h 55m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	5h 34m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060	6h 54m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 09:06 → ATL 10:31DL 1261	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:51 → GSO 15:10DL 2539	6h 04m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:49 → ATL 18:54DL 1323	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	7h 10m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 16:30 → GSO 17:50DL 3050	7h 10m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:07 → LGA 10:02DL 2387	2h 16m New York	LGA 12:18 → GSO 14:07DL 5132 · flown by Endeavor	7h 00m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:13 → GSO 20:33DL 3017	6h 24m	95%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 15:41 → ORD 18:15AA 3056	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 19:24 → GSO 22:19AA 3648 · flown by Envoy	6h 38m	64%	44%
American Details →	MIA 17:19 → LGA 20:19AA 2271	1h 23m New York	LGA 21:42 → GSO 23:41AA 4577 · flown by Republic	6h 22m	62%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON