Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2252 American Flight history →	MIA 15:44	IND 18:43	27%	9%	1.8%	65%
AA 2518 American Flight history →	MIA 20:22	IND 23:14	33%	11%	0.8%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → IND 13:32DL 3013	7h 32m	99%	89%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491	1h 42m Washington	DCA 10:23 → IND 12:53AA 4701 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 09:06 → ATL 10:31DL 1261	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	6h 13m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	57m Atlanta	ATL 10:07 → IND 11:46DL 2952	4h 36m	90%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	6h 41m	95%	81%
American Details →	MIA 06:06 → CLT 08:14AA 3004	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → IND 13:22AA 3044	7h 16m	98%	81%
United Details →	MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864	1h 43m Newark	EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic	7h 00m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 15:57 → IND 17:35DL 2979	6h 55m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 20:10 → IND 22:28UA 3707 · flown by Republic	6h 18m	74%	59%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:10AA 1454	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:01 → IND 13:06AA 500	6h 06m	74%	56%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → IND 17:20AA 3312	6h 20m	63%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON