Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 4157 at 15:40 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4157 Envoy	MIA 15:40	MEM 17:21	22%	4%	3.0%	no record
AA 1551 American Flight history →	MIA 22:28	MEM 23:55	34%	10%	1.0%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 06:06 → CLT 08:14AA 3004	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 10:39 → MEM 11:23AA 1354	6h 17m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 09:06 → ATL 10:31DL 1261	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:13DL 733	6h 07m	98%	78%
United Details →	MIA 13:19 → IAH 15:27UA 470	3h 46m Houston	IAH 19:13 → MEM 20:57UA 6167 · flown by Mesa	8h 38m	98%	77%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:10AA 1454	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:32 → MEM 14:13AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	8h 13m	100%	76%
American Details →	MIA 07:49 → CLT 09:56AA 361	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 13:14 → MEM 14:09AA 1790	7h 20m	98%	75%
American Details →	MIA 09:56 → DCA 12:20AA 1612	3h 22m Washington	DCA 15:42 → MEM 17:21AA 4444 · flown by Republic	8h 25m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	6h 24m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	1h 05m New York	LGA 19:50 → MEM 21:56DL 5606 · flown by Republic	7h 27m	63%	34%
American Details →	MIA 16:45 → DFW 18:52AA 3259	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:47 → MEM 21:26AA 2153	5h 41m	54%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON