tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 7h 12m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:57 → OKC 10:09AA 1902 5h 44m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:49 → ATL 18:54DL 1323 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 21:41 → OKC 23:10DL 2423 7h 21m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:35 → OKC 16:26UA 1656 9h 49m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:10AA 1454 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:01 → OKC 12:10AA 2734 6h 10m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → MIA 13:19 → IAH 15:27UA 470 2h 45m Houston IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 6h 42m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:29 → DFW 10:50AA 1679 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:24 → OKC 14:30AA 2929 7h 01m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:47 → DFW 20:00AA 2828 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:05 → OKC 22:17AA 1355 5h 30m 64% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON