Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1983 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1983 MIA 07:36 → PHX 09:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2982 MIA 17:40 → PHX 19:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1983 American Flight history →	MIA 07:36	PHX 09:49	16%	5%	1.1%	92%
AA 3172 American Flight history →	MIA 11:25	PHX 13:12	25%	8%	1.0%	77%
AA 2427 American	MIA 22:11	PHX 00:09	29%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 2107 American	MIA 14:38	PHX 16:25	30%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 2982 American Flight history →	MIA 17:40	PHX 19:28	35%	13%	1.8%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	7h 04m	94%	70%
American Details →	MIA 09:36 → DFW 11:34AA 1824	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:48 → PHX 13:24AA 336	6h 48m	86%	59%
American Details →	MIA 09:57 → AUS 12:12AA 812	50m Austin	AUS 13:02 → PHX 13:35AA 2042	6h 38m	78%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON