Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3749 MIA 13:46 → PNS 14:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest MQ 3566 MIA 17:50 → PNS 18:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3749 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:46	PNS 14:42	17%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 4109 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 23:08	PNS 23:59	19%	3%	0.8%	83%
MQ 3566 Envoy	MIA 17:50	PNS 18:49	22%	5%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON