Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 647 at 21:05, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 647 American Flight history →	MIA 21:05	SDF 23:42	34%	16%	0.8%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	5h 51m	98%	87%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 09:06 → ATL 10:31DL 1261	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → SDF 14:57DL 3195	5h 51m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:49 → ATL 18:54DL 1323	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → SDF 23:59DL 2624	7h 10m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:10 → DTW 16:08DL 1468	3h 37m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	8h 02m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → SDF 17:13DL 1126	6h 33m	98%	76%
American Details →	MIA 07:49 → CLT 09:56AA 361	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 13:33 → SDF 15:06AA 2296	7h 17m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → SDF 20:41DL 3093	6h 32m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON