Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	6h 56m	99%	86%
American Details →	MIA 06:06 → CLT 08:14AA 3004	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 11:39 → TUL 13:26AA 2657	8h 20m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:49 → ATL 18:54DL 1323	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → TUL 00:00 +1DL 2043	8h 11m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186	6h 13m	96%	77%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:10AA 1454	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:59 → TUL 12:14AA 2352	6h 14m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	6h 59m	98%	73%
United Details →	MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852	2h 32m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	9h 03m	94%	69%
American Details →	MIA 08:29 → DFW 10:50AA 1679	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:13 → TUL 15:32AA 2056	8h 03m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:26 → TUL 09:44AA 2348	5h 19m	72%	57%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	48m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	4h 55m	61%	46%
American Details →	MIA 17:47 → DFW 20:00AA 2828	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:50 → TUL 22:10AA 2014	5h 23m	47%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON