Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3055 at 04:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3055 MKE 04:59 → MCO 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3057 MKE 18:09 → MCO 21:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3055 Southwest	MKE 04:59	MCO 08:45	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1324 Southwest	MKE 10:24	MCO 14:10	16%	6%	1.1%	no record
WN 1168 Southwest	MKE 20:04	MCO 23:49	21%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 5010 Southwest	MKE 13:13	MCO 17:01	24%	11%	2.1%	no record
WN 3057 Southwest	MKE 18:09	MCO 21:55	30%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON