Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 3804 at 09:54 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day OO 3804 MKE 09:54 → MSP 11:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3821 MKE 18:52 → MSP 20:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3804 SkyWest	MKE 09:54	MSP 11:17	10%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 4074 SkyWest	MKE 06:24	MSP 07:49	12%	7%	1.5%	no record
OO 3934 SkyWest	MKE 08:00	MSP 09:25	13%	6%	1.2%	no record
DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:07	MSP 13:26	19%	9%	2.2%	89%
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MKE 15:59	MSP 17:21	29%	17%	2.0%	76%
OO 3821 SkyWest	MKE 18:52	MSP 20:17	29%	15%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON