Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 5799 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46%.

Safest bet that day UA 5799 MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 4990 MKE 15:07 → ORD 16:09 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	11%	7%	5.1%	81%
AA 6261 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 04:58	ORD 05:57	13%	9%	4.1%	69%
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:55	ORD 07:53	21%	8%	4.1%	89%
OO 5008 SkyWest	MKE 07:47	ORD 08:46	23%	10%	3.1%	no record
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:50	ORD 09:00	27%	11%	3.1%	78%
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	28%	12%	3.6%	74%
AA 6479 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:43	ORD 09:42	30%	14%	3.7%	70%
UA 5559 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 11:07	ORD 12:02	31%	18%	4.5%	63%
UA 5640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 14:22	ORD 15:20	40%	27%	9.7%	65%
OO 4984 SkyWest	MKE 12:18	ORD 13:22	44%	28%	7.8%	no record
UA 4740 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 12:15	ORD 13:13	44%	28%	7.8%	69%worse than usual
UA 5648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 16:08	ORD 17:04	46%	24%	7.5%	51%
AA 6507 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 19:19	ORD 20:18	46%	21%	5.2%	52%
UA 5420 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:32	ORD 19:31	46%	22%	7.1%	73%worse than usual
OO 4990 SkyWest	MKE 15:07	ORD 16:09	49%	27%	9.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON