tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via O'Hare, leaving 18:32, is the safest bet: 42% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3234 Southwest MKE 10:38 SAN 12:54 23% 6% 1.0% no record
UA 3784 United MKE 11:03 SAN 13:39 24% 10% 2.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:29 → SLC 09:50DL 2716 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 12:04 → SAN 13:08DL 1296 7h 39m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Chicago ORD 07:24 → SAN 09:51UA 2428 6h 51m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → SAN 13:17DL 843 9h 32m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → SAN 12:57DL 540 8h 07m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Detroit DTW 12:32 → SAN 14:12DL 761 9h 01m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → MKE 07:59 → IAH 10:49UA 5536 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Houston IAH 14:26 → SAN 15:59UA 1114 10h 00m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SAN 17:13DL 924 9h 02m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 9h 58m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:55 → ORD 07:53UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 53m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 6h 26m 65% 50%
UnitedDetails → MKE 18:32 → ORD 19:31UA 5420 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Chicago ORD 20:35 → SAN 22:49UA 1564 6h 17m 66% 42%
UnitedDetails → MKE 14:22 → ORD 15:20UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest 46m Chicago ORD 16:06 → SAN 18:23UA 2138 6h 01m 39% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON