tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3065 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3065 Southwest MKE 08:14 STL 09:41 10% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 9001 Southwest MKE 17:49 STL 19:16 29% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → STL 13:03DL 566 6h 13m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 10:09 → STL 11:00DL 1400 5h 15m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 54m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → STL 16:06DL 543 5h 55m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:12 → STL 16:51DL 1224 4h 44m 90% 71%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:55 → ORD 07:53UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Chicago ORD 10:57 → STL 12:29UA 1044 5h 34m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → MKE 04:58 → ORD 05:57AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Chicago ORD 09:26 → STL 10:50AA 2208 5h 52m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Chicago ORD 09:43 → STL 11:05UA 4613 · flown by GoJet 6h 05m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 10:57 → STL 12:29UA 1044 3h 39m 68% 51%
UnitedDetails → MKE 12:15 → ORD 13:13UA 4740 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 3h 31m 65% 38%
UnitedDetails → MKE 16:08 → ORD 17:04UA 5648 · flown by SkyWest 48m Chicago ORD 17:52 → STL 18:48UA 4518 · flown by GoJet 2h 40m 37% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON