Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, QX 2294 at 17:27, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


QX 2294 Horizon	MRY 17:27	SEA 19:46	30%	5%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MRY 11:19 → PHX 13:07AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 14:27 → SEA 17:30AA 3934 · flown by Envoy	6h 11m	95%	74%
United Details →	MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest	3h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 19:33 → SEA 22:17UA 684	8h 23m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m San Diego	SAN 11:24 → SEA 14:13AS 1366	8h 13m	99%	65%
Alaska Details →	MRY 14:37 → SAN 16:13AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m San Diego	SAN 20:03 → SEA 22:35AS 1373	7h 58m	100%	64%
United Details →	MRY 08:37 → SFO 09:42UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m San Francisco	SFO 12:10 → SEA 14:30UA 2744	5h 53m	92%	61%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SEA 21:29UA 2767	9h 00m	98%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MRY 12:59 → DFW 18:17AA 2879	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → SEA 21:37AA 2003	8h 38m	73%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON