Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5374 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5374 MSN 05:41 → DCA 08:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 5645 MSN 17:20 → DCA 20:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5374 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 05:41	DCA 08:56	10%	6%	2.1%	90%
AA 5647 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSN 12:24	DCA 15:33	24%	12%	4.0%	68%
AA 4523 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 18:23	DCA 21:45	26%	11%	3.1%	75%
DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 17:20	DCA 20:24	30%	12%	3.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON