Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 797 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 797 MSN 07:39 → DFW 10:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 1660 MSN 17:50 → DFW 20:19 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 797 American Flight history →	MSN 07:39	DFW 10:01	22%	6%	1.1%	77%
AA 2388 American	MSN 11:41	DFW 14:07	27%	10%	2.0%	no record
AA 1660 American	MSN 17:50	DFW 20:19	40%	13%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON